Los Alamos can meet its pit production milestones, officials believe. SRS can’t.

• By Colin Demarest cdemarest@aikenstandard.com
• August 5, 2021

ALEXANDRIA, Va. — Meeting a trio of plutonium pit production requirements at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the years to come is doable, federal officials believe. But the story is different, far less certain, at the Savannah River Site south of Aiken.

While production benchmarks in 2024, 2025 and 2026 are “achievable” in New Mexico, “current planning” shows a 2030 production deadline at the Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility, where 50 of the plutonium cores are supposed to be made, will not be met, according to Michael Thompson, a National Nuclear Security Administration executive.

“Having said that, because it is a military requirement, because it has not changed, we are pulling out all the stops, if you will, and coming up with viable options, all viable options, to minimize the gap that may exist when we get to that point,” Thompson said Wednesday.

Federal law mandates the production of 80 plutonium pits per year by 2030. At current pace, the military demand for pits – key warhead components – cannot be satiated. A range of specialty equipment needs to be procured and installed at the potential Savannah River Site pit factory, and that will take time. The clock is ticking. And for years the schedule has been described as aggressive, challenging, tight.

“So three out of the four, I would say, right now are achievable,” Thompson said Wednesday, referencing the goalposts planted in New Mexico and South Carolina. “One, today, as we stand here, is probably not achievable. But that does not mean we are stopping all efforts. We’re actually doubling down on what we need to do.”

The National Nuclear Security Administration, a Department of Energy agency, in June announced the Savannah River Plutonium Processing Facility could come online between 2032 and 2035 at a cost between $6.9 billion and $11.1 billion. Prior to that, the NNSA announced the pit production project at Los Alamos, dubbed LAP4, could be completed between 2027 and 2028 at a cost between $2.7 billion and $3.9 billion.

“Critical equipment,” the NNSA said at the time, “is scheduled to be installed in time to achieve the 30 pits per year” mark in New Mexico.

But watchdog groups have their doubts. Los Alamos Study Group’s Greg Mello, who attended the Nuclear Deterrence Summit where Thompson spoke, said “establishing industrial pit production in LANL’s smaller, aging facilities” is “going to be tough.” It’s also needless, Mello believes.

“Once SRS pit production starts up that plant will have all the capacity and agility that might be needed,” he said. “It’s also a much safer site and facility. LANL has a production mission solely because of a mistaken perception that a crash program is necessary. It isn’t."