August 14, 2025

More data showing that LANL does not produce economic development -- use it in your outreach!More data showing that LANL does not produce economic development -- use it in your outreach!

Dear colleagues --

One of the most persistent and important myths surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is that it creates "economic development." 

Today's headlines about the Governor declaring a state of emergency in Española and its surrounding areas due to rising crime rates (see below, at the end of this message) provide an opportunity bring this subject into the public sphere again. Obviously, the addiction and crime problem in Rio Arriba County long precedes the fentanyl crisis, which has only made it worse. 

If only it were possible to dispel this myth once and for all! Even many so-called "anti-nuclear" individuals and organizations place a premium on retaining LANL jobs, under the spell of this mistaken myth. 

In a comment to the Santa Fe New Mexican article below I wrote: 

In the murky world of "economic development" -- poorly defined, poorly understood, hyped and spun beyond all recognition -- this political development reminds us that for whatever set of reasons, the massive LANL employment in Rio Arriba County (RAC) has not created "economic development." Unless, of course, "economic development" is defined tautologically as spending money, which is precisely how most of our bought-and-paid-for political elite define it. "Economic development" has been de-linked from human purposes and values, reducing it to simple sums of money, which we are all trained to consider the highest human good. LANL's role in Rio Arriba County employment is massive. See "If Los Alamos is bringing economic development to New Mexico, why is the neighboring County of Rio Arriba performing so poorly?"

The 2,398 LANL employees residing in RAC pulled in $291 million in LANL salaries in fiscal year 2023. This does not including the substantial sums paid to subcontractors. Since there were only 9,462 employees total in RAC that year, LANL employees comprise 31% of all employees in the County -- again not counting LANL subcontractors, of which there are hundreds.

Given the enormous economic influence of LANL on Rio Arriba's economy, the County's relative rankings within New Mexico in key social indicators can tell us, more than any other observable measure, how much "economic development" LANL really brings. That relative ranking within New Mexico in effect "cancels out" the effect of statewide variables and policies.

So what do we see in RAC? Despite over $200 million in LANL jobs, plus more in subcontracting, we see that Rio Arriba ranks in the worse half of New Mexico counties in poverty overall, and has the 4th highest ranking in poverty of minors and elderly. It has the highest rate of accidental death of any New Mexico county, the second-highest rate of alcohol-related deaths and the highest rate of drug overdose deaths. Rio Arriba's per capita income, food security, and child food security rankings are in the bottom half of New Mexico counties. Rio Arriba County does poorly, despite all its LANL jobs.

This neither proves nor disproves that proximity to LANL, with all its high-paying jobs, has caused this poor economic and social performance. What it does prove, in broad-brush but irrefutable fashion, is that LANL is not any kind of "economic development" engine. Rio Arriba's problems continue despite 80 years of LANL spending, to the tune of approximately $150 billion, total, in today's dollars.

New Mexico's congressional delegation believes that LANL creates economic development, and fiercely supports spending money -- any kind of money -- at LANL. The data show that LANL does NOT create economic development. The political advocacy for LANL by the New Mexico delegation turns out to be an excuse, not a reason, for taking the easy, unthinking path of accepting LANL's political support and the substantial contributions available from its employees, who are contractors and thus not covered by the Hatch Act.

As a former Air Force and Pentagon economist put it 20 years ago,"Those who think LANL creates economic development are people for whom 60 years of data are not enough." Now it's 80 years, and the most telling part of the region, the excuse for all the nuclear pandering, is doing worse than ever. Now, thanks to massive new spending at LANL, there is equally massive gentrification going on in LANL's commuter-shed. Housing costs are being jacked up. The Albuquerque Journal recently reported that less than 10% of RAC renters could afford to buy a median-priced home in the County. The inequality effects of LANL employment vastly overshadow whatever positive effects from spending money per se. LANL creates "an aura of apartheid" in its shadow, with overwhelming negative social and political effects. Our political leaders need treatment for LANL addiction, a form of political heroin. It's killing us.

It is not just Rio Arriba County that is failing to thrive despite oodles of LANL cash. It is the whole state -- although RAC is especially failing. See the important: "Failing State: How New Mexico Ranks," table, updated Jul 25, 2025, which was assembled by Bex Hampton and Trish. 

To modify a sarcastic remark of then-Mexican President Porfirio Diaz's, "Poor Rio Arriba County. So far from God, so close to Los Alamos."

Since the most recent update of that "Failing State" table, this new study appeared: "Study ranks New Mexico as the worst state to live in" (KRQE, Isaac Cruz, 8/11/25). The original rather detailed study is at WalletHub. As we noted when we first published the "Failing State" table, such studies vary in quality and of course in utility for policy-makers ("Failing State: How New Mexico Ranks Despite massive spending over 8 decades and recent growth, New Mexico's nuclear labs have not brought economic development," Jan 8, 2025). 

We have written about this myth for decades. See for example "Does Los Alamos National Lab Help or Hurt the New Mexico Economy?" Jul 2006 and "Weapons Labs and the Future of New Mexico: Problems, Prospects, Messages," May 15, 2007 briefing. 

LANL is an economic "upas tree," exactly as in Pushkin's poem of that name. 

Please keep recruiting your friends and business acquaintances, your religious communities, etc. to the Call for Sanity, Not Nuclear Production! Write Trish if you want to volunteer!. 

Contribute financially if you can! 

We have some big news in preparation, but we thought you should see this first. 

Best wishes, 

Greg Mello

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/new-mexico-governor-declares-crime-emergency-in-espa-ola/article_20806037-7557-467b-aab3-9adc2c7f6977.html

New Mexico governor declares crime 'emergency' in Española